Thanks for contributing that information William. I have to confess that I don’t fully understand the charts provided, but in general you can see the storm clouds gathering. In light of the 2008 “too big to fail” experience, and the subsequent blanket immunity from prosecution for the gigantic fraud and malfeasance, couldnt we be about to see another round of fantasy book keeping, a transfer of x number of trillions into public debt, to allow the failed system to keep lumbering on? After all, this all amount to a huge transfer of wealth to a private elite. As long as there’s energy to maintain the system, regardless the cost, it can be made to operate. If the accountants are all corrupt.
What worries me most is the day when the tank begins to run right dry. You can’t bribe the accountants to cover that.
What you lay out seems to apply directly at present to Saudi Arabia, which is alarming. This helps to explain the incredible level of military aggression they are engaging in regionally, putting Quatar under seige, and utterly destroying Yemen, now with a death toll probably nearing a half a million. So indirectly if Saudi Arabia physically fails, it will have a severe impact on world energy supplies. My cynical view is that their regional aggression is as part of a contract with neighbours and allies to maintain their failing state, a situation which could keep them afloat for some time.
Tank going dry. I noticed the fuel outages last summer which reached as far as Ontario. There was a risk of a tri state area running out of fuel, apparently narrowly averted. The standard story now is pipeline problems, but to pull out emergency stops, and ship fuel around the coast and ration supplies through a broad region sounds more extreme than bridging a half mile of pipe would require. It sounds like gulf coast refineries might have run out of offshore supplies to refine and distribute. No wonder if they were going more broke with every barrel shipped. That’s problematic for the largest conusmer of oil in the world, far beyond oil self sufficiency.
Regarding economic impacts, Canada avoided the disastrous housing bubble and associated impacts, because by luck our banking industry was more regulated. The Canadian economy is very heavily dependent on oil, exporting more to the US than Saudi Arabia, I understand. The low price has severely impacted fracking, and obviously tar sands production is far below economic recovery.
Sadly, Canada has very lax financial oversight, and the country has become a huge money laundering destination for Chinese funds, focusing on real estate. And without the 2008 correction, the prices of real estate have continually inflated. Credit has reached and probably passed the critical limit. Recently it has come to light that a Canadian sub prime mortgage provider was falsifying information, paying sales people on commission, all the standard stuff. They are now effectively insolvent, being heroically propped up by other players in the industry hoping to avoid contagion. And interest rates are about to begin to hike upwards.
So it could get interesting here. The European situation isnt looking very promising either.
I think that these system failures clearly relate to the failure of give away energy that so much of our system is based on.
Where it goes, could be various scenarios, I think the more likely is the lifeboat scenario, where we take from others so that we can carry on longer, but regional instability in have not regions could rear up to throw those plans off the rails suddenly.
All of which makes self sufficiency and internal combustion engines, particularly tractors, powered on biomass incredibly attractive. To paraphrase Steve U, the best time to develop skills and knowledge and equipment is well before you need them. This business is complex enough that the come as you are, come late just wont cut it.