progressing slowly
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Itās funny to me that people are calling 87 degrees a āheat waveā.
On similar note, we have had unusually cool weather this month. we still have good lettuce in the garden.
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OH, and I forgot. LOL How stereotypicalā¦Itās my wedding anniversary. 21 years.
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Ai, don t shout to loud but get your surprise before it is to late. Congratulations.
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To all my friends out thereā¦
I am having a bad time reading the Covid19 numbers, living in disbeliefā¦ I am having harsch words in my mind for your commander in chief, but not to use politics hereā¦
Our Thai commander in chief is doing a great job, real generals attitude, and things are looking promisingā¦
Take an example on the countryās with low numbers, they are doing simple thingsā¦ they do workā¦
Just to all off you, please stay safe, please stay healthyā¦
I just canāt stop worrying, i lost 2 dear loved ones in 1 year time, donāt want to loose some moreā¦
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Koen, Thanks for your concern for us. We have been wondering how yaāll are managing there as well.
Just a couple of thoughts on what you wrote. I agree with the sentiment, everyone stay as safe as you can. We need you around for a while. Especially you old guys. LOL!
That said, Koen, I think there are quite a few reasons the numbers are higher here than other places. And I probably wonāt list them all.
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We actually do have more of this disease because, for better or worse, Americans are addicted to their freedom. There is just so long they can/will hide out in their homes and not go to workā¦and the beach. LOL
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Every single death in this country for the past 3 months has been, if at all possible, considered a COVID 19 death. There are real instances of someone having been shot in the chest, and because they were asymptomatic with COVID 19, the death reports indicated a COVID related death. This is happening in numbers significant enough to change the numbers around.
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Because, hospitals are paid from a special fund for treating COVID related cases. I heard something like $27000 or $29000 per case. The government is incentive-ising the presence of COVID-related causes. The hospitals, unable to make money on elective treatments, like cancer treatments, etc., during the shutdowns, have to pay their bills somehow, and so, every possible link to COVID is reported as a COVID-related death. This fact comes to me through no fewer than 13 separate independent vectors, people that I know personally or their family members. And also from health care workers I know through my work in the rescue squad., or my extended family from at least 5 different states.
It is kind of a joke among many that if you get in a car crash, after being shot , and set on fire, into a landslide, and fall off a mountain and then have respiratory symptoms, all that your family will ever hear about you is that it was COVID 19. -
Nothing has every been more politicized in American society than COVID 19.
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We are doing so much testing, it is bound to find many more cases than you see in other places. Most people, I think, probably somewhat errantly, believe that if you did the same kind of testing in other places, you would find similar numbers.
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For better or worse, I imagine that most of us Americans fear a threat far greater than the virus these days, so it makes it hard for anyone to care enough about protocols aimed at keeping people apart, etc. SO I thank you for your reminders to us. We need them. There are strong pressures in many directions for Americans, or groups of them to come together for reasons considered to be far more important and lasting than a higher-than-usual death toll due to COVID 19. Which is kind of where I started. We certainly are a strange bunch, arenāt we?
Stay safe over there. Also, Can you list the simple things yaāll are doing that seem to be working?
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Hi Billy,
The most effective measures are: wearing a mask ( to protect other from you as well), keep distance ( 6ft rule), wash your hands, handsanitisers before you enter a store ā¦
Basic: donāt infect others ( similar as not pointing a gun towards someone, youāll never know )
Government does enforce the rules, closed the borders, 14 days quarantines mandatoryā¦
No non essential movementsā¦
About numbers and politicsā¦ i am a numbers man, trained to see the averages and the trendsā¦
i worry for those that prefer their freedom onlyā¦
USA has only 5% mortality rate vs infection rate, which is normalā¦ ( even if you test more, more cases come to light and then the 5% mortality will still stand)
Belgium, my home country, has 16%ā¦( low testing rate )
To know what is real ? follow the statistics on 5 year average death rate and put the current numbers aside thoseā¦
These are the number from Belgiumā¦ ( 109 tests per 100k population)
Youāll notice an increase (over the average) and check if or when the numbers go under the averageā¦
You will have a very precise picture about the pandemicā¦
Anyways and anyhowā¦ make sure that anybody pointing his muzzle towards you is wearing a maskā¦ wear one to ensure the others that you mean no harm to themā¦
basic common sense in cases as corona virus or any respiratory illnessā¦
This virus dropplets spread similar as powderdustā¦ try it with wheat flourā¦ see where it lands and clean those surfacesā¦
If you smell someones breath, it means the virus can reach youā¦ if you smell the tabaco smoke exhailed by a smoker ? ditoā¦
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I funded research into Bdellovibrio . It is my extreme regret that I directed research to the eye rather then the lungs as was originally intended
(1) Bacterial co-infections are the hidden threat lurking behind COVID-19
Already, some studies have found that 1 in 7 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 has acquired a dangerous secondary bacterial infection (Zhou et al., 2020). These co-infected patients have a higher risk of mortality according to reports that 50% of COVID-19 patient deaths were due to secondary infections (Morris, Cleary, Clarke 2020, Zhou et al., 2020). Approximately 20-30% of hospitalized patients co-infected with COVID-19 and pneumonia have required intensive care for respiratory support (Huang et al., 2020, Wang et al., 2020). Treatment of severely ill patients with mechanical ventilation is known to increase the risk of bacterial infections, and where antimicrobial resistance is rampant, even higher risks for complications and mortality can be expected.
Individual Patterns of Complexity in Cystic Fibrosis Lung Microbiota, Including Predator Bacteria, over a 1-Year Period
The most promising results obtained with the computational model are related to a high initial proportion of the predator, simulating an artificial addition as could happen if predators were used as a biological weapon. All of the bacterial species were eliminated with this condition; first, prey are destroyed by predators and then predators become extinct because of the absence of nutritional sources, suggesting that Bdellovibrio might eventually be used as a ābiological antibiosis strategyā to control pathogenic bacterial populations (59), at least in the early stages of the colonization process, when the prey density is still low. The safety of these microorganisms has been demonstrated in animals
Pathogen Predators (Archived)
Dr. Kerri Dugan
The Pathogen Predators program focuses on force readiness and homeland protection through development of novel countermeasures against biological threats involving bacterial agents. Currently, the most common defense against such a threat is traditional antibiotics, but while such antibiotics have been remarkably effective in the past, their widespread use has heightened the risk of our troops contracting antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections that are difficult or impossible to treat. A new type of countermeasure is needed to overcome the threat posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
Pathogen Predators aims to develop a new class of dynamic therapeutics that use live, motile, predatory bacteria that prey upon other Gram-negative bacteria that are pathogenic to humans. Previous in vitro studies have shown that predators such as Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus and Micavibrio aeruginosavorus prey upon more than 100 different human pathogens, including several that are multi-drug resistant. These results suggest that it is possible to develop a predator-based therapeutic with efficacy against a broad spectrum of Gram-negative pathogens, including those that are resistant to antibiotics.
The Pathogen Predators program seeks to establish the technical feasibility of such an approach for use in humans. The program supports fundamental research aimed at developing a molecular-level understanding of predator-prey interactions as well as studies using in vivo infectious disease models. Specifically, Pathogen Predators seeks to determine if predators are toxic to recipient (host) organisms; against what pathogens (prey) predators are effective; and if pathogens can develop resistance to predation over time.
If successful, Pathogen Predators will lay the groundwork for a living, predator-based therapeutic that is safe and efficacious against a large number of infectious diseases, including those that are resistant to conventional treatments. Future advances in this area may be also applied to a range of biological technologies including the autonomous control of epidemics.
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Program Information
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I have been wondering this for a while now but never see those statistics anywhere. If you add up the number of deaths from ALL causes yearly for the past 3 years and compare that to 2020 so far, how does that compare?
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Hi Don, the first picture have an horizontal black line, which represents the average(5 years) for all normal deaths occuring in said period of time, the vertical represent the actual deaths registered.
The vertical lines above the horizontal line represent an accurate picture for the assumption that there is Covid related deaths. ( all above average )
If the following numbers go below the horizontal average ( under average) that indicates a certain amount of people would have been deceased anyway sooner or later from other causes.
Statistics can give a accurate overview pictureā¦ but statistics are always lateā¦
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I heartily agree with all that Billy North has put up.
Matches my here in the USA experiences and observations completely.
And this spans my wifeās getting re-occurring kidney stones and my dental tooth blow-up during this NO non-Covid services period!!
America is different and will remain different.
Each created over-there wave of immigrants mostly consist of those who embrace a live-free, or die, living free attitude.
I saw this in the immediate post Vietnam conflict folks.
I saw this in the Cambodian boat people.
I see this in the majority of the new citizen from-Mexico folk.
I have worked decades with these folks.
None like being top-down dictated too unless it is from their base religion.
Unfortunately this Covid-19 happens in a Presidential and National Congress election year. These always get rabble-roused stirred up. Politicized. Because mostly we will have to compliance live for four years with the results of this elections change over.
And I willsay that our system is great. Evolving changing every four years to different directions by the eighth year.
NO Presidentās-for-life here.
NO lucky-us with a good Royal . . . maybe. Un-lucky us with an aged gone-unstable Leader until they die.
So working nurse Wife and I DO were face covering when in indoor public places. Mostly for respectfulness to those working there.
We DO hand sanitize going in. Immediately after coming out.
If we are masked up and the other party is masked up do not worry so much about the social contact distances. So long as hands-off is respected.
We do this from an educated respiratory disease knowledge.
NOT because of any Top-Down by the Federal, individual State, or even local town Mayors mandates.
The no fishing rule was ridiculous.
The no camping rule was ridiculous.
The still current rules that big Stores can operate but small individual stores and services cannot yet is plain pure bad Science and therefore IS POLITICAL.
The tolerance and forgiveness for these big āspontaneousā demonstrator and protest gathering IS PURE POLITICAL too. Well . . . from the Polices standpoint practical too. Just aināt enough jail cells. And who want s to wrestle with the great un-washed, eh.
No you cannot go to the hot sunny UV virus killing beach or a sun sanitized childrenās play park, but you can shoulder to shoulder gather up until 3, 4 oāclock in the morning all night long in protest raves??
Ahh. Shoot. I should not probably written what I have above.
It is just that the disingenuousness of the pure bull āfollow the Data&Scienceā spin is so frustrating.
S.U.
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Yup, the only needed rule to follow, common sense, not ridicule enforcing ā¦
Simple as: if it rains and you donāt like it ? wear an umbrella, donāt try to change the weatherā¦
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I would even consider stay indoors until it stops. 
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Billy,
I think you gave a very balanced and objective view of US Covid-19 response.
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Jo . Until your family is going to starve to death or get kicked out of their apartment because you are afraid to work in the rain. The $1200 stimulus checks that most people received are long gone. If people canāt work, they canāt pay their rent, buy their food, etc.
Unfortunately, we are not a well managing prepared society anymore. Most of our people, especially in the cities are unprepared to survive from gardens and hunting and fishing anymore. And so are very dependent on the financial system. Very few of us can thrive outside of it anymore.
Don . Me too. Been wondering what the long term overall death rate for all causes is , and how that is different than normal.
Koen. We can not fairly assume that the discrepancy is all Covid related death. We can assume that the discrepancy is caused by all the differences in the situation. Some due to Covid. Some due to death actually caused by unprecedented Covid shut down s. Locking everyone in their own home for months may, and I think does, have a significant immunological affect on the entire population. Some of those deaths are caused by the cure. Not all are caused by the virus. Suicides are up. Murder rates are up, in part because of Covid shutdown s. Malnutrition is even up. Micronutrient deficiency is up. Vitamin k and d levels are down nationwide. Those factors have an affect on people s immune response.
We stay strong by interacting with germs and fighting them off. Unless they kill us off course.
So I donāt think the Dv is so linear and mono faceted.
Eventually the whole thing comes down to a values based judgement. Our society is very divided these days when it comes to those. Iām afraid that makes it hard for us to get together on the threats posed by germs. The question is always about which values are on top of your list. One group of people is wholly about public safety. Another is primarily focused on the economic damage being done to the whole and to individual people. Still other have a primary focus on the effects of all this on the survival of the entire system and itās survival as a way of life, for which millions have already died attempting to protect. None of those perspectives are all wrong. None are complete. But then, I guess thatās what republics and democracies are all about. Thatās how the sausage gets made.
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Koen, I was curious what all those people are doing to survive since they canāt work. The article simply stated that the government has done some stimulus packages. Do you know exactly what that looks like?
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Tennessee mountain country. Headed north. Some of us headed to Pennsylvania for a speaking engagement. Passing through here had me thinking about a Tennessean we havenāt heard from lately. Anyone heard from our pipe smoking friend with the Ford truck?
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What you are looking for can be found here: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
You will want to select āExcess deaths with and without COVID-19ā at the bottom and update the dashboard. Should show this graph:
2017-2018 was a bad influenza season, and you can see there was a spike that shows up in jan 2018. If you bring up the dashboard, it will show you percentages, and the excess deaths at the peak ran about 35% higher than what one would otherwise expect to see at that time of year.
Another thing to bear in mind is that car accidents are a big contributor to overall deaths, and that traffic dropped off so much during the lockdown that insurance companies sent people refunds. If people are dying deaths of despair at home from being cooped up, I suspect that is being offset by people not crashing their cars; but that is just my own speculation.
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Billy, you will get my vote if you ever get into politics
By skipping the umbrella and wait for the rain to stop I simply meant this shutdown showed there are many things we can do without and some things can wait. We may even do better in the end if we back off just a notch and stop pressing on no matter the consequences.
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