Sean that is a good read. But the sand storms in the desert in China make windmills very difficult. About 10 years ago when I was in Tiawan the locals found that a very funny topic as we where watching the Chinese desert blow over Taiwan for 2 days. I never would have believed those sand storms blow all the way to tiawan so thick you can’t be out in it if I hadn’t see it.
I have no idea about sandstorms in Taiwan. 
I pay a lot more closely to what is going on in North America. We have different issues then Asia.
http://www.solartradingpost.com/solar-panel-roi.html
I wish the EROEI was as good as some make out.
As far as corporate claims, some seem aspirational, or more aimed at publicity. When a solar manufacturing plant is powered on solar, then it’s credible (after the 9 - 12 year EROEI). Same for an ethanol production chain all powered on it’s own ethanol still producing excess power.
Yes, electric distribution delivers as little as 30% of the power generated to the plug in or light. And the natural gas burnt to calcine the Portland cement for hydro dams, coal and diesel for mining and smelting metals for transmission infrastructure have a heavy carbon footprint. And they don’t really pretend otherwise. If we are talking about a truly sustainable, net positive energy system, then all those energy costs have to be accounted for, if the goal is to have a system that can provide power and power itself. So cabling energy costs and other necessary infrastructure matter.
The issue with lithium is much the same. Where is the energy to come from for producing the energy storage medium, and how much of it is there anyways? Information I have found states that to equip 1 billion passenger vehicles would require the global mining output for over 70 years. Assessments are that such application isn’t feasible along with other uses. I am sure lithium batteries are a valuable source for low cost recycling and losses are minimal. But I suspect the energy embodied in the mining and processing is high, and to claim efficiency in an application hidden expense of fossil fuel energy is required.
To be fair, I will concede that the EROEI of PV has been steadily improving. But to what degree gets murky. Until there’s a significant increase in conversion efficiency I wonder about short term break even. Insolation is the other factor, it seems many performance estimates have been based on sunny Spain and Mediterranean solar exposure. The heavy German investment in solar in comparison seems to have no payback potential. Panel life span is another significant question, being exposed to full sun and weather, plus the potential damage from storms makes a long life doubtful.
Saying all that, I have a small off grid solar system, and really appreciate it. Nothing like watching satellite TV on the power of the sun nowhere near a power line. And in a rural area not being connected to the grid when it goes down is a good thing. 
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Garry please reread the article I posted above is solar sustainable. It covers same total input energy cost of producing the solar pannels. That article points out that the solar panels made in Spain have just over 1 year energy break even and the ones in China are over 2 years because the power grid that the factory is attached to is cleaner in Spain. The 9 to 12 year break even number is outdated based on lower efficency cells and older manufacturing technology. The solar industry has advance alot in the last decade.
Garry this is double jeopardy if the factory is powered by the energy source in question the product comming out of that plant is “creditable”
On day one because those panels where built with solar power not FF. Yes the panels running the factory take 1 or 2 years (current EROI) In the case of the solar panel factory powered by solar power the EROI time is just part of the capital investment which the government let’s you deduct over 15 years. So you can’t count that against the output of a factory like Tesla is building for his batteries.
This is a chicken or the egg argument though you can’t build the factory to run on the product it produces so you have to start somewhere.
Your argument is the same thing as saying that you shouldn’t build a wood gas genorator because the factory that formed the steal you used is powered by FF and your welder runs on FF to build the wood gas genorator. Yes it is true you can’t plug your welder unto the tree on your lot (if you could you would not need the genorator in the first place) but does that mean you shouldn’t build your wood gas genorator?
As to if it works in your climate versus Spain that is why I have said there is no one solution fits all for alternative energy. Here in NH the solar gain is high enough to make solar a viable option wind is not on my property just the truth of alternative energy. The same can be said about a garden I can’t grow watermelons here or sweat potatoes but that doesn’t mean the people south of me shouldn’t raise them. It means I should pick alternative crops which I can grow like regular potatoes or blueberries. The same is true with energy. Maybe solar doesn’t work where you are but something else does like wind or hydro power.
As to the lifespan of the panels I am not as cynical of the manufacturer I guess but I do believe that you can build something that is able to be left outside for 25 years and still function. I live in a house which has windows that have been in the sun for 116 years and the glass in them functions the same as it did when it was built. I mention windows because the top surface on solar cells which is exposed to the sun is pretty close to glass. I am willing to accept that the manufacturer has done his testing and the 25 year warranty is real. Maybe I just have more faith in the honestly of the manufacturer then you do. But I do trust that if companies make false claims we have a criminal justice system to handle snake oil sales men.
My take on this is that as long as we are on the government and commercial teat, we will have these sort of environmental problems.
When individuals had their little water wheels to provide their own needs and that of their community, the water flowed down the sluice box, over the wheel, and on down the stream. It was when greedy commercialism go involved that Huge dams were built which flooded hundreds of acres and destroyed habitats etc. Just one example.
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Yes, and the leadership out my way makes it virtually impossible to ever go back to that water wheel. Just try doing anything at all to a creek or forest, or put up a windmill, and someday, there will be something bad about making your own power any way you care name. Everything is at the government’s discretion. I recall a guy mentioning it was illegal in his country to make his own electricity - Polish guy I think. Guess who supplied the power over there?
Thankfully, I am rural, and that gives me options
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This has drifted well off topic, we must drive Chris nuts some times, but I will wrap up my thoughts.
In Manitoba we actually have quite high solar and wind potential, what we don’t have is any public subsidy for their use. It seems subsidies skew opinion on EROEI. Apart from claims I don’t see PV dramatically altering the energy landscape anywhere yet, any more than we see ethanol sweeping aside petroleum or even sustaining it’s own production. Tesla has very deep pockets and mostly operates at a loss. In time we will see if they have a game changer. The massive solar thermal concentrating arrays such as in Spain do appear to produce significant energy gains, as you point out,1,000 watts per square meter is a very attractive source of power.
I don’t mean to make chicken or egg scenarios, what I am trying to point out is that we are so accustomed to nearly free external energy inputs into all our products that we have lost touch with what the total energy budget means, and where it would all come from without fossil fuels.
I don’t consider wood gas as similarly burdened, as it is more like a typical FF system, taking an energy dense natural bonanza and extracting obvious surplus energy. A couple of gallons of chainsaw gas will heat a home for a winter.
But if a person wants to absolutely account for energy inputs, it’s far more severe regarding vehicles and our entire lifestyle. If you had to use wood charcoal for industrial steel smelting, steel production would probably be 1% of present levels. Obviously cost in such a full accounting would be extremely prohibitive. In Europe prior to exploitation of coal the entire landscape was exploited to the level of the solar maximum. Since then the population has tripled, and individual energy consumption has probably multiplied by 10. The model of life we have developed with FF will not sustain, I doubt it is safe to try to emulate it.
Regarding panel longevity, they tend to be bigger and thinner than windows, and set at an angle, which should make them susceptible to hail and other storm damage. Over decades I think that is significant. Also the electrical connections etc all have to perform to an exceptional standard to get the lives they hope for.
For renewables to be significant in our energy civilization we will need at least 4 - 5 times the electrical grid, and I see no signs of that happening yet either. In order to effect such revolutionary change would require government re-engineering of countries from the ground up, starting with transportation and the practical end of the personal vehicle.
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Garry I agree we need to move to a lower energy life style. We have started that to some extent with led lighting and energy star appliances but only a small drop in the bucket. I think it was in this forum that I said recently Americans need to realize that we don’t need these big heavy fast cars and move to much lighter less performance based cars. That probably isn’t the solution to our transportation issues but we could probably cut the fuel used in half if we didn’t need to go from 0 to 60 mph in sub 10 seconds. OK I don’t know what the typical car will do today but a normal car today will accelerate faster then a sports car from the 80s. My point just being that I agree we need to curb our wasteful ways.
As to the power grid. I think that is old fashioned thinking. I think grids work good in cities or high density popular areas but once you get out in the sticks I think off grid life will be the solution. That is how I think you answer the problem of upgrading the grid you remove it in rural areas. That might be 20 years out but it is what developing nations are doing now called leap frogging the grid technology. Think of it similar to the phone industry it was not that long ago that we all had land lines now it is rare that you see a land line unless it is in a business. Which goes back to high population density within the building.
The issue with off grid life is people have to take responsibility for their power and fix it when it doesn’t work. Plus there is an industry based on selling you that power and they don’t want to loose their customers. But in reality there are probably more jobs installing and maintaining small scale power for homeowners then there is in the big grid. But it requires rethinking the business model we have used for the last about 100 years.
I guess my only point is that alternative power is more then a pipe dream now the technology is either practical or very close to practical. I think it is reasonable to expect that in the next 20 years anyone with an acre of land can meet their power needs and live a confortable life. At least in most climates.
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A low energy life style sounds good, what sounds even better is making your own energy. You’ll be personally beholden to your own wants and desires. If you’re wood gassing, want huge power so you drop in a converted 12V-92, you’ll be the guy having to haul, chunk, dry, bag, and store all the wood needed to feed that 1104 CI engine. Kind of puts you on a balance beam!
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Manitoba gets about 97% of it’s electric through hydro. You probably aren’t going to get subsidies for wind and solar until there is widespread adoption of EVs or non-fossil fuel heating to bump up electric use. For a lot of people especially rural, the current generation of EVs isn’t going to work for them. The next generation will be closer and work for more people, but still may not work for everyone. It might be like 10-15 years before you see something that -could- work. It is coming, but it takes a while.
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I agree, but actually the problem with vehicles is probably far bigger than most imagine. An enclosed 200hp personal transport capable of 600km driving on a tank of fuel goes far beyond what kings dreamt of over a century ago. We do have practical EV’s right now, they are pedal assisted electric scooters. Considering that over a century ago all people got around on foot or by horse, they would have thought they had reached the promised land if they had a scooter. But we’ve built a customary life on fossil fuels and forgotten what matters and where we came from.
For urban areas in fair weather most personal transportation needs could be met with scooters. Or people could even walk again! And for a revolutionary saving. And then the objections… People insist on 40 mile commutes to work, and transporting the family to distant schools, etc. These are all recent cultural adaptations to a period of essentially free energy. Now that’s drawing to a close, and the planet is giving catastrophic warnings.
Suburbia and cities built predicated on personal FF vehicles has been described as the greatest misallocation of resources mankind has ever done. Apart from the great environmental danger, to restructure that system into something we can manage without massive fossil energy inputs may be beyond our ability to cope or to maintain.
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I believe that’s roughly the trouble here, we have some of the cheapest energy in North America. But it’s green renewable energy. Granted the distribution grid has high losses, but the system is a reasonable benchmark against which to measure other green power. Elsewhere the benchmark is coal and natural gas generation, which isn’t an appropriate measure. That’s why the utility and provincial government isn’t keen on what is commercially available, it has little payback compared to existing green power.
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Gary, your concern about the life of pv panels is understandable. They are a big investment. The panels I have are from the mid 90s and I expect them last for years. Have had hail that left dents in my pickup and they survived. Have a friend with with panels removed from an experimental plant that used reflectors to try increase output. After a short time the panels started to darken and lost about 15%. This was in the late 70s or early 80s. Those panels were resold at a discont with no guaranty. They are still producing about 80% of there rated output. If new panels are built as well they should be good for decades.
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I believe a grid is an essential component of a green power system, as the power is diffuse, and you need to distribute bulk amounts of power over great distances to cover periods when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine. Storage is best seen as a last resort and limited, as storage significantly reduces energy efficiency. Unless we can reach some kind of promised land of better batteries by a factor of 10, but there are only so many chemistries, progress seems incremental.
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Garry the time I spent in Tiawan is a great example of the transportation you are talking about. Shooters are everywhere but in reality there are alot of people there who don’t own one and do walk in the city. I also found out in some cases 2 or 3 friends share one either because of cost or no place to keep it in the city. That said if we are going to travel at 35 mph plus I want something slightly safer. Middle ground does exist.
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I agree, dropping urban speed limits would open up a lot of options and benefits, it’s where you logically have to go. Even 20 or 25mph is far safer and human, 30 and greater are FF manifestations, very recent developments.
But I can’t imagine a politician surviving the angry response.
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Probably if they put in a 20 mph speed limit you would actually get there faster given all the accident related traffic jams. Lol
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It was done in war time, but I think you would need a war time emergency to motivate people. The government could likely do that, but the politics is an extreme obstacle, and people won’t give up the FF dream willingly, it’s been too good for too long.
I suspect going slower probably would move people faster. Just using smaller vehicles or scooters would greatly improve traffic movement.
20 mph could work in a densely populated aria but were I live going to a supermarket or hardware would be a all day trip. A mall would be over night. Need to DOW!
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